Polymarket Prediction Drift: Why Markets Systematically Move in One Direction Before Major Announcements
A trader monitoring Polymarket’s US election contracts in October 2024 observes an anomaly: the price for a candidate winning a particular state begins drifting upward three days before any public announcement, accelerating in the final six hours, then stabilizing once the official result is released. The move is not random walk behavior. It is directional, […]


